The History Of The Negotiation Power Tourism Essay Essay Example

The History Of The Negotiation Power Tourism Essay Paper In general, negotiation mean dickering procedure between two or more parties seeking to detect a common land and make an understanding to settle a affair of common concern or decide a struggle ( Business Dictionary.com ) . Harmonizing to Fisher A ; Ury in their book Geting to YES: Negotiating Agreement without Giving In, negotiating is a basic ways in acquiring what you want from other peoples ( 1981 ) . While in Oxford Dictionary, dialogue average treatment aimed at making an understanding. In Women Are Geting Even ( WAGE ) web site, they interpret dialogue as conversation between two parties in order to do an exchange. Harmonizing to Rusk ( 2006 ) , the significance of dialogue is treatment intended to bring forth an understanding . It besides can be mentioning as common solutions that used to do a determinations and settle down the jobs ( Moore, 2012 ) , a procedure which is two or more parties attempt to hold on the rate of goods and services that they exchange ( Robbins A ; Judge, 2003 ) . Conflict and dialogue are a fact of mundane work-life, yet it frequently produces anxiousness ( Cutts, 2012 ) . We will write a custom essay sample on The History Of The Negotiation Power Tourism Essay specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now We will write a custom essay sample on The History Of The Negotiation Power Tourism Essay specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer We will write a custom essay sample on The History Of The Negotiation Power Tourism Essay specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer The UK Border Agency has announced that there are still proficient jobs with on-line booking service ( Kelly, 2012 ) . This statement shows that sometimes online engagement faced a job such as lost record ( Kirschbaum, 2009 ) , security issues ( Fane, 2010 ) and proficient issues ( Scoot, 2012 ) . There are jobs that faced by client when they used online engagement system. Despite the fact that all the respondents ( except for one ) usage computing machines about every twenty-four hours, 14 % believe that booking online is non procuring in general ( Bogdanovych et al, 2006 ) . Conflict happen because of these jobs. Conflict happen when people did non hold with the issue, it will make a clash or tenseness between that person or groups ( Nahavandi, 1999 ) . Negotion is a procedure that analyzing the facts of state of affairs, exposing the involvement of both parties involver and bargaining to work out the struggle every bit many as possible ( Moore, 2012 ) . Negotiation permeates the i nteraction of about everybody in the organisation ( Robbins A ; Judge, 2003 ) . Harmonizing to Lucas ( 2008 ) , struggle might happen because of differing perceptual experience, inadequate or hapless communicating and besides contrary outlooks. These jobs frequently happen when covering with client particularly in travel bureau. In touristry industry dialogue is an of import procedure to derive a common understanding of something, particularly to go bureaus. It is important for them to corroborate what their client wants and demand. Through dialogue struggle between travel bureau and client can be reduced. Negociating through countries of struggle can frequently take to win-win state of affairss agreeable to parties, cut downing sick felling and struggle ( Queensland Government, 2011 ) . Travel agents have the dialogue power because they have maximal pick to offer to their clients ( Travel Cafe Inc 2011 ) . This means they have assortment of picks that they can acquire from their t ravel providers and they can give us the best trade with best value of possible. Online booking deficiency of firsthand cognition and seldom gives client chance to talk with person knowing about service that they are booking ( Morelock, 2012 ) . The clients and travel agents can help us to acquire what we want in our holiday. Online booking allow client to do all travel programs on the cyberspace means they can make it any clip of the twenty-four hours or dark at place or while they re on their tiffin interruption at the office ( Oakley, 2012 ) . It is true when we are making booking online we can do a engagement everyplace and anytime but we can non negociate the monetary value of the touristry merchandise that we wish to book. If we are negociating with travel agents, we have the opportunity to acquire lower monetary values as possible. Price dialogue normally occurs during buying of stuffs or supplies ( Francois, 2012 ) . For illustration, if a travel bundle to Cameron Highlands costs about RM300 for two darks, the clients can negociate the monetary value lower and can acquire around RM250. With dialogues, both parties will have their ain benefits and it is a win-win state of affairs ( Rusk, 2006 ) . When client asks an agent to negociate, means client are basically inquiring the agent to subsidise the ir holiday ( Brock, 2009 ) but through on-line system, client had no alteration to negociate with an agent because the monetary value is fixed. The Marriott International, Hilton Hotels, Sheraton Hotels A ; Resorts and others was charged in San Francisco Federal Court on charges conspired to utilize their market laterality to repair the hotel monetary values with travel web sites like Travelocity, Booking.com and Expedia, a subordinate of Priceline.com From this instance we can see that client can non negociate the monetary value because the monetary value is fixed. The purpose of the dialogues is to make up ones mind the monetary value that is acceptable for both parties ( Francois, 2012 ) From monetary value dialogue procedure it becomes dickering procedure. Negotiations normally follow a procedure of positional bargaining ( Cutts, 2012 ) . Oxford Online Dictionary give two reading of bargaining, the first is an understanding between two or more people or groups as to what each will make for the other. The 2nd is a thing bought or offered for sale much more stingily than usual or expected. There are two types of dialogue which are distributive bargaining and integrative bargaining ( Robbins A ; Judge, 2003 ) . Distributive bargaining besides called claiming value, zero-sum or win-lose bargaining is a competitory scheme that is used to make up ones mind how to administer a fixed resource such as money ( Spangler, 2003 ) . Honeyman ( 2012 ) , interpret intergrative bargaining as one of platform which party attempt to understand involvements of another party, on the outlook that it will assisting the opposition to make solution as antiphonal its ain concerns. Harmoniz ing to Tewart ( 2012 ) , many times people say they do nt wish to negociate ( dickering ) yet, they still shop about and neer pay full monetary value. The word bargaining here does non merely average monetary value dialogue, it is a much differentiated and broader term ( Management Study Guide, 2012 ) . Customer besides can dicker to construct his or her ain trip with or without aid from a client attention executive ( Agarwal, 2012 ) , inquiring whether travel bureau offer travel insurance ( trip Travel Responsibility Informed A ; Protected, 2012 ) and a client can seek damages under certain fortunes normally referred as the right to mend, replacing or refund ( Government of South Australia, 2011 ) . These are things that client can dicker with travel bureaus. The freedom of client is restricted when they make booking through online. Customer can non corroborate their specific demand when make the online engagement through the hotel reserve system ( Vyas, 2010 ) . For illustration, when they make booking through hotel reserve system, if they have something that they do nt understand, no topographic point for them to raise the inquiries. Harmonizing to Lloyd, booking online does nt hold single to cover with booking procedure, it leaf to client to read and understand the complicated footings and conditions. One of the advantages of booking direct with the hotel, by phone or electronic mail, is that client can bespeak a specific room of the hotel and they can non usually do that online or with an agent ( Trend, 2010 ) Harmonizing to Tewart ( 2012 ) , most people act in their best involvement and most people who say they do nt wish negociating, really still desire to. This statement show that clients still love to negociate and online engagement system prevent them from making it. Negotiation is needed in order to procure the resources required for successful undertaking completion ( Evans A ; Lindsay, 2008 ) . Through negociating win-win solutions with clients it will non merely give your company the best opportunity to win but will besides make relation between client and your company for future gross revenues chances ( Douglas, 2003 ) . Negotiation besides can increase lucidity about the job, can take to advanced discoveries and new attacks, engagement in struggle can sharpen attacks to bargaining, act uponing, viing and besides can concentrate more attending on basic issues and lead to solution ( Wertheim,1996 ) Vyas, J. ( 2010, August 10 ) .A Disadvantages of booking online on travel portals. Retrieved from hypertext transfer protocol: //ezinearticles.com/ ? Disadvantages-of-Booking-Online-on-Travel-Portals A ; id=4832401 [ Web log message ] . ( 2012 ) . Retrieved from hypertext transfer protocol: //www.wageproject.org/files/neg.php Queensland Government, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation. ( 2011 ) .Negotiation accomplishments. Retrieved from web site: hypertext transfer protocol: //www.skills.business.qld.gov.au/running/1172.htm hypertext transfer protocol: //www.businessdictionary.com/definition/negotiation.html Oakley, R. ( n.d. ) .A The advantages of on-line reserves. Retrieved from hypertext transfer protocol: //traveltips.usatoday.com/advantages-online-reservations-63078.html Lucas, R. W. ( n.d. ) .A Reacting to conflict with clients. Retrieved from hypertext transfer protocol: //www.selfgrowth.com/articles/Responding_to_Conflict_with_Customers.html Lloyd, M. G. ( n.d. ) .A Advantages and disadvantages of an online engagement system read more: Advantages and disadvantages of an online engagement system | ehow.com hypertext transfer protocol: //www.ehow.com/info_8780323_advantages-disadvantages-online-booking-system.html Johanson, M. ( 2012, August 21 ) .A Travel web sites, hotels accused of price-fixing. Retrieved from hypertext transfer protocol: //www.ibtimes.com/travel-websites-hotels-accused-price-fixing-751937 Brock, C. ( 2009, July 13 ) .A Negociating rates and menus with travel agents. Retrieved from hypertext transfer protocol: //ezinearticles.com/ ? Negotiating-Rates-and-Fares-With-Travel-Agents A ; id=2603163 Tewart, M. ( n.d. ) .A Peoples still love to negociate. Retrieved from hypertext transfer protocol: //www.expressyourselftosuccess.com/people-still-love-to-negotiate/ Trend, N. ( 2010, February 11 ) .http: //www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/columnists/nicktrend/7213438/hotel-booking-should-you-use-an-online-agent-or-go- Dickering power of clients. ( n.d. ) . Retrieved from hypertext transfer protocol: //www.managementstudyguide.com/bargaining-power-of-customers.htm Top inquiries to inquire your travel agent. ( n.d. ) . Retrieved from hypertext transfer protocol: //trip.ustia.org/safety/articles/1233/top-questions-to-ask-your-travel-agent/ Government of South Australia, Business, Industry and Trade Department. ( 2011 ) .A Refunds to clients. Retrieved from web site: hypertext transfer protocol: //www.sa.gov.au/subject/Business, industry and trade/Starting and pull offing a business/Running a business/Selling to customers/Sales patterns in your business/Refunds to clients Cutts, R. N. ( n.d. ) . Using principled dialogue to decide workplace issues.A Conflict Management, 3. Retrieved from hypertext transfer protocol: //nl.walterkaitz.org/RNicoleCutts_PrincipledNegotiation.pdf Spangler, B. ( 2003, June ) .A Distributive bargaining. Retrieved from hypertext transfer protocol: //www.beyondintractability.org/bi-essay/distributive-bargaining Spangler, B. ( 2003, June ) .A Integrative or interest-based bargaining. Retrieved from hypertext transfer protocol: //www.beyondintractability.org/bi-essay/interest-based-bargaining AGARWAL, S. ( 2012, October 08 ) . Want to do your ain travel path? here are few portals that will assist you.A The Economic Times. Retrieved from hypertext transfer protocol: //articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-10-08/news/34322860_1_travel-agents-travel-itinerary-travel-hotspot Francois, C. ( 2012 ) .A What is monetary value dialogue? . Retrieved from hypertext transfer protocol: //www.wisegeek.com/what-is-price-negotiation.htm A Nahavandi, A. A ; Malekzadeh, A.R. ( 1999 ) .A Organizational Behavior: The Person-Organization Fit ( ch. 13 ) .A Upper Sandle Ridge, NJ: Prentice Hall.

Company Valuation Report Goodman Fielder

Company Valuation Report Goodman Fielder Introduction In this report, we have tried to present a comprehensive evaluation of Goodman Fielder Company. By considering the market and financial environment in which Goodman fielder operates, we have employed the use of several helpful tools to evaluate Goodman Fielder. Here, historical data on share returns, market returns and financial statements will be used to approximate the value of Goodman Fielder shares.Advertising We will write a custom report sample on Company Valuation Report: Goodman Fielder specifically for you for only $16.05 $11/page Learn More The calculated values will then be compared with the actual values of shares at the market. The period of our interest runs from 1st January 2006 to 2nd February 2012. The Du Pont approach has been used to compute for equity returns. Later on, we used the CAPM model to estimate for the required rate of return. We then considered the DDM model, the cash flow model, the earnings ratio model and the pr ice book ratio (Tobin 1969). These approaches have been helpful in understanding various facets (including price value and competitiveness) of the share pricing for Goodman Fielder (a major indicator of a company’s performance) (Viney 2009). Often, we found it necessary to identify a number of actions that can be undertaken by the management of Goodman Fielder to better the prospects of their company. Background Information Goodman Fielder is a food processing and retail company with base operations in Australia (Kenneth 1982). Among the products that are produced and marketed by the Goodman Fielder Company include bread, mayonnaise, milk, pizzas, cooking oils and pies (Kenneth 1982). The company ranks top among the main producers and distributors of food within Australia and the rest of the pacific Islands (Keown 2002). In New Zealand, it (Goodman Fielder) is the largest supplier of flour ands commercial fat to manufacturing industries (Oliver 2009). Thus, apart from being a major producer and distributor of grocery commodities, Goodman Fielder is also a supplier of edible fat and flour to commercial food companies (Ross Sergio 2005). Many Australians love Goodman Fielder products; thus, the company has a good market segment here (Keown 2002). Goodman Fielder company employs more than seven thousand people within Australia and the larger pacific Islands region (New Zealand, Papua Guinea, New Caledonia and Fiji) (Oliver 2009).Advertising Looking for report on business economics? Let's see if we can help you! Get your first paper with 15% OFF Learn More Market Segment As we have seen, Goodman Fielder has a large and wide market segment. Geographically, Goodman Fielder’s market segment cuts across Australia and the pacific Islands region (Collins Kothari 1989). Goodman Fielder produces a variety of products that target various segments in the consumer market (Kopcke 1982). Among the most important segments here include ba king, dairy market, fats and oils, and flour (Collins Kothari 1989). All of the mentioned segments fall within two major categories (Cuthbertson Nitzsche 2008). The first category can be described as one that consists of processed items that are ready for consumption such as packaged milk, bread and pies (Oliver 2009). On the other hand, the second category consists of items that need further processing before they can be supplied to local markets (Kopcke 1982). Such items, which are usually supplied to commercial food companies, include bulk flour and edible oils. Goodman fielder has always been among the two major large scale suppliers of food products in Australia (Cuthbertson Nitzsche 2008). Likewise, the company is the main supplier of edible oil and flour to commercial companies in New Zealand (Oliver 2009). Financial History Although the financial performance of Goodman Fielder has averagely been good for a long time (Rayburn 1986) (where the company has been giving good r eturns on its equity), the same cannot be said about its performance in the past five years (where our analysis of the company will focus) (Ali et al. 1995). The past five years have not been good for Goodman Fielder Company (Cuthbertson Nitzsche 2008). During this period, its (Goodman Fielder) profits have been decreasing steadily (Collins Kothari 1989). The share prices of Goodman Fielder have likewise been on a downward spiral (Cuthbertson Nitzsche 2008). Below is a chart showing the performance of Goodman Fielder’s shares over the past six years (Reilly Brown 2012). As it can be seen above, the shares of Goodman Fielder have decreased by more than a half in within the past six years (Ali et al 1995). Some stock market analysts are even expecting Goodman Fielder shares to even fall further in the coming months. While Goodman Fielder products remain popular within its consumer market, the company has been performing dismally (Ali et al. 1995).Advertising We wil l write a custom report sample on Company Valuation Report: Goodman Fielder specifically for you for only $16.05 $11/page Learn More An evaluation of Goodman Fielder financial statements over the past six years reveals a steady decline in revenues (Ali et al. 1995). A number of factors have helped to contribute towards the dismal performance of Goodman Fielder (Easton 1989). First, the recent years of the global economic crisis created a difficult environment for Goodman Fielder Company (Jorgenson 1968). The sales of Goodman Fielder products decreased as the market adjusted to the economic crisis to seek for cheaper food products from other producers (Atrill et al. 2006). Besides, many micro-scale competitors have emerged; thus, eating into the market segment of Goodman Fielder (Jorgenson 1968). The exports of Goodman Fielder have also been affected by the relative strengthening of the Australian dollar in relation to export markets (Kenneth 1982). Moreover, new in vestments in bakery by the company (Goodman Fielder) have failed to improve on returns (Atrill et al. 2006). The ever increasing fuel prices on the global market have coupled with other factors (such as increases in wage bills) to contribute in increasing production and operation costs for Goodman Fielder (Atrill et al. 2006). Such a direction has eaten into Goodman Fielder revenues; thus, contributing to its dismal performance (Easton 1989). More importantly however, the management of Goodman Fielder have been slow in reacting to the ever dynamic business environment of their company; thus, leading to the poor fortunes of their company (Edwards Bell 1961). While a large number of customers in Australia and the greater pacific Island region love Goodman Fielder products, the company has failed to solidify its market segment here (Atrill et al 2006). The poor performance of Goodman Fielder shares in the stock market is an indication that share investors are losing their confidence i n the ability in its managers (Kenneth 1982). Unlike a number of her counterparts that have successfully emerged from the recent economic crisis (After shrinking during the global economic crisis, the Australian economy has been recording some growths from 2008) to expand their profits, Goodman Fielder is even performing worse at the moment than during the economic crisis period (Ross Sergio 2005).Advertising Looking for report on business economics? Let's see if we can help you! Get your first paper with 15% OFF Learn More A number of objectives that have often been designed by Goodman fielder management to tackle the economic difficulties facing their company have so far failed to be fruitful (Atrill et al. 2006). The 2011 half year results indicate one of the poorest performing periods for Goodman Fielder in the past six years (The general performance of Goodman Fielder has generally been on a steady decline over the past five years) (Kenneth 1982). In the recent past, Goodman Fielder has at times been unable to pay dividends as a result of its decreasing cash inflows (Miller Modigliani). Obviously, there is an urgent need for Goodman Fielder to restructure and adapt to the current economic environment in its market (Koller et al. 2005). Such a direction can only be achieved by a creative, innovative, and a new management at Goodman Fielder (Edwards Bell 1961). As it will become clear in our analysis, the general performance of Goodman fielder has been way below her peer companies (Baker Powell 1 999). Even with the current progressive growth of the Australian economy (after a difficult economic crisis period), the performance of Goodman Fielder has failed to mirror the expanding Australian GDP (Expected to grow by about 0.8 percent this year) (Edwards Bell 1961). However, the outlook of Goodman and fielder cannot be concluded to be grim (Kopcke 1982). Let us not forget that there are millions of customers that love Goodman Fielder products (Fama French 2001). Much of Goodman Fielder’s future will however depend on the ability of its senior management to return the company where it was in the past decade (Miller Modigliani). With the expanding Australian economy, the possibilities of Goodman Fielder to expand its market share here are real (Baker Powell 1999). Moreover, the economies of pacific Island economies such as New Zealand, where Goodman Fielder has vast interest, have also continued to show a progressive growth; thus, presenting new opportunities for Good man Fielder to expand its markets in these areas too (Fama French 2001). However, as we had seen earlier, the onset of positive fortunes for Goodman Fielder is dependent on the ability of its management to deal with current difficulties and exploit existing opportunities in the market (Baker Powell 1999). Return on Equity Return on Equity is among the most important approaches that are usually utilised by investors to analyze a company’s profitability. Here, we will utilise the most recent returns (Half year returns for the period ending December 2011) data from Goodman Fielder Company to analyse its return on equity. Generally, a company that is able to produce high returns from its equities without accumulating large debts boasts of large cash flows (Baker Powell 1999). Thus, such companies can grow without new capital expenditures. Such an arrangement is useful for investors since they can withdraw funds from such a company and invest their withdrawals in other interest s (Fama French 2001). So as to understand important components on equity returns, we will employ the use of the Du Pont Model in analysing the equity returns of Goodman Fielder Company (for the period mentioned) (Beneda 2003). So as to give investors information on specific areas of interest, the Du Pont model has divided equity returns into three multiples: Net profit Margin, asset turnover, and Gearing Ratio (Kopcke 1982). Thus: Return on Equity = Net Profit margin*Asset Turnover* Gearing Table 1 below summarizes ROE’s for the past six years. Table 1: ROE YEAR Gearing ROE 2011 2.58 3.6 2010 2.78 2.8 2009 3.01 3.4 2008 2.9 4.3 2007 2.6 4.7 2006 2.2 5.6 An equity return of 3.6% is quite low (Fazzari et al. 1988). Such a rate is way below the acceptable average of about 12%. With such rates, investors will thus shy away from buying Goodman Fielder shares at the stock exchange; thus, a low demand for the company shares at the stock market (Beneda 2003). Such a direction explains why the stock prices of Goodman Fielder have been falling steadily at the stock market (Fazzari et al. 1988). In 2011, Goodman Fielder had a profit margin of 1.67 percent. Again, such a profit margin is quite low (Kopcke 1982). It therefore means that the company is making little profits from its revenues (Miller Modigliani). Besides, such a low profit margin is also an indication that there is currently a low possibility that the company’s (Goodman Fielder) management will affect profits to down spiral further (Beneda 2003). Since the profit margin is approaching one percentage point, a further decrease in profit margins is unlikely to result from the mismanagement of Goodman Fielder (Fazzari et al. 1988). It is therefore safer to invest in Goodman Fielder shares with a disregard of how the company’s management could lead to future decreases in profits (Lehn Makhija 1996). However, such a consideration cannot be used in isolation when identifyin g the potential of Goodman Fielder shares (Beneda 2003). During the half year period ending 31st December 2011, Goodman Fielder recorded an asset turnover of 83.5%. The asset turnover ratio is helpful in determining the capacity of a company in converting its assets to incomes (Black 1972). An efficiency of 83.5 % in converting assets to profits is quite acceptable (Fazzari et al. 1988). What however is of concern to investors is the low return on equity despite a leverage of 2.58 (Ohslen 1995). Such an arrangement means that Goodman fielder is relying on debts to generate its low return on equity at 3.6% (Fruhan 1981). Without debts, Goodman fielder would generate a return on equity of only 1.4%. Such an arrangement means that there is a low cash flow within Goodman Fielder; hence, explaining why the company has been facing difficulties in performance (Black 1972). Macro-Economic Factors The global economy is expected to expand slightly in the next few years after experiencing the recent economic crisis (Viney 2009). Here, developing economies like China will experience most growth. On the other hand, developed economies like Australia will experience a slight growth (the Australian economy is expected to grow by 2%). There is usually a strong relationship between economic growth and company growth. The growth prospects of Goodman Fielder Company in 2012 are thus positive. With a market in Indonesia and other Asia-Pacific economies (whose economies are expected to expand marginally), Goodman Fielder can expand her market further. At 2 to 3 percent, the expected rate of inflation in 2012 is within acceptable limits (Green et al. 1996). Australian customers will therefore have enough money to spend on Goodman Fielder products. With a leverage of 2.58, the financial performance of Goodman Fielder will heavily rely on interest rates. If interest rates increase, Goodman Fielder will spend more resources in financing her debt. On the other hand, a decrease in inter est rates will help to finance the expansion plans of Goodman Fielder. Indications at the moment predict a fall in interest rates to levels below 3%. Here, the prospects of companies with large borrowing, such as Goodman Fielder, will remain bright. Estimation of Goodman Fielder Shares CAPM Model The CAPM (Capital Pricing Model) model has for many years been a useful tool in calculating expected returns from shares (Lehn Makhija 1996). Although several economists have criticised the effectiveness of the CAPM model in analysing share returns, no alternative model has been developed to date (Black 1972). Generally, the CAPM model can be represented in the equation below: C= A+ ÃŽ ² (B-A) Where A is the risk free rate, B is the market return rate, ÃŽ ² is the coefficient of the premium rate, and C is the expected rate of return (Ohslen 1995). Our important responsibility lies in calculating beta for the capital pricing model (Black 1972). By observing the above equation, one can be ab le to see that it is an equation of a straight line; with a constant gradient and an intercept (Ohslen 1995). One can therefore be able to determine beta through the use of an appropriate graph that plots C against (B-A) (Fruhan 1981). Having obtained the historical share return indexes from dates 1st January 2006 to 2nd February, 2012, we calculated the monthly share return rates in an excel worksheet (Gozzi et al. 2006). Such rates were obtained by calculating percentage changes in the share returns of adjacent months, and then multiplying the result by 12 to obtain the annual rates of returns (Lehn Makhija 1996). Likewise, a similar procedure was employed to calculate the expected monthly returns of the share market from a dataset than contained monthly return values of shares (from dates 1st January 2006 to 2nd February 2012) (Bond Meghir 1994). The free market rates were obtained from the 20 year Federal Reserve rates (from the historical data of the United States treasury ra tes) (Gozzi et al. 2006). As we have been using in other data sets, our period of interest here is from 1st January 2006 to 2nd February, 2012. The frequency of the treasury rates that we used is monthly. The premium rate was then obtained by subtracting A from B (Lintner 1965). An appropriate graph was then drawn in excel where the rate of share returns was plotted against the premium rates (Lintner 1965). Our raw Beta is thus the coefficient of the premium rate, which (as shown below) was shown to be 0.9691. As it is usually suggested, our raw beta needs to be adjusted as below: 0.9691 (0.67) + 0.33 =0.979 Thus, we obtain an adjusted value of 0.979 as our new beta (Lintner 1965). In analysing the CAMP model, we used treasury rates from the Australian Reserve bank to proxy free market rates (Gozzi et al. 2006). Such a direction was informed by the stability of the treasury rates, and the very unlikely scenario of a default from the Australian government (Bond Meghir 1994). Many e conomists are confident in using the US treasury rates to represent free market rates (Liynat Zarwin 1990). Such rates are often approximated at 5 %( Liynat Zarwin 1990). However, it is useful to observe that in exceptional circumstances, treasury rates can decline (Liynat Zarwin 1990). Such a direction was observed during the recent economic crisis, and also during the early months of 2012. Here, treasury rates went even below 3% during some months. On the other hand, we employed the return value of the stock market to proxy the market return rate (Green et al. 1996). Since such a value is a representation of the average performance in market stocks, it may not represent a true picture of the market return rate (Green et al. 1996). Here, it would be useful to obtain the standard deviation on stock performance so as to understand whether the estimation that we have used is useful in representing market returns (Bond Meghir 1994). However, since such an approach would involve a c umbersome procedure of evaluating the performance of all listed companies in the share market, we simply used the total value of stock returns to calculate our assumed market return rate (Liynat Zarwin 1990). Considering the micro-economic factors that we have discussed above, we found it useful to split the financial performance of Goodman Fielder into four categories: Very strong GDP growth, strong GDP growth, flat growth, weak growth. The table below summarize our estimates. Table 2: Market Return for Different Conditions of Growth. GDP Market Return Estimate(%) Probability (%) Market Return (%) Very Strong ( 5%) 25 10 2.5 Strong (2-5%) 15 60 9 Flat (1-2%) 5 20 1 Weak (1%) -10 10 -1 Average 11.5 With an adjusted Beta, we calculated the current risk premium rate as follows. With a beta of 0.979, taking the current treasury rate (2.75% as obtained from the historical treasury rates), and assuming an average free market return of 5% (since most economist est imate that the premium rate varies from 3.5% to 6%, we take an average of 5%), the risk premium rate can be calculated as: A= 0.05+ 0.979 (0.05) = 9.9% The Dividend valuation Model can be represented as follows: Value= Expected Dividend/ (Return on equity-Growth rate) The table below summarizes returns for different conditions of economic growth. Table 3: Returns for different conditions of economic growth GDP Market Return (%) Risk Premium Required Rate Of Return Very Strong ( 5%) 2.5 -0.025 0.025525 Strong (2-5%) 9 0.04 0.08916 Flat (1-2%) 1 -0.04 0.01084 Weak (1%) -1 -0.06 -0.00874 Average (11.5) 11.5 0.065 0.113635 The discount rate is thus 9.9% and the last dividend payout was 2.5 cents per share (Liynat Zarwin 1990). We estimate a growth rate of 2%. As we had seen earlier during equity returns analysis, the ratio of profit margin was approaching 1%. Such a scenario implies that the management of Goodman Fielder will in future have a slight impact on future pro fit declines (Bond Meghir 1994). Since share prices have also declined to lowest levels, we can expect the share prices to stabilize and grow at a stabilized rate of 2% (Lone et al. 1996). We do not expect the shares to grow at a higher rate at the moment since the company (Goodman Fielder) will require a longer period of time to recover (Bowen et al. 1986). Table 4: DDM Approximations for Share Prices Year Growth Growth Rate Share 2012-2014 Slow Growth 0.02 0.639240506 2014-2016 High  Growth 0.08 2.736842105 2017 0NWARDS Stable  Growth 0.03 0.735507246 Thus, as shown in the table above, the current price for Goodman Fielder Shares is about 0.6392. This particular value is comparable with the market value that has been ranging from 80 cents to 40 cents in 2011. We can also calculate the implied growth rate by assuming that the stock prices for Goodman and Fielder are correctly valued (Lone et al. 1996). Here, with the greatly unstable Goodman Fielder stocks, the cha llenge would be in picking a historical value of the stock (Lone et al. 1996). We can select the sock value on 1st January, 2012 (Green et al. 1996). On this particular date, the stock was traded at 42.42 cents. Thus: 0.4242 = 0.025 (1+g/2)/ (0.099/2-g/2) Thus, implied growth rate is 0.019. Cash Flow Since Goodman Fielder does not always pay dividends, we can use cash flows per share (instead of dividends) to estimate its share value (Head 2008). The cash flow model is similar to the DDM model except that we use cash flows per share, instead of dividends, to calculate share returns. Based on our macro-economic assumptions, we think that Goodman Fielder will experience a slow growth followed by a stage of high growth, before settling at a steady growth. The table below presents approximations of the share price for the three stages above. Table 5  Price Earning Ratio and Price Book Value model Year Growth Growth Rate Share 2012-2014 Slow Growth 0.02 1.856865823 2014-2016 Slo w Growth 0.08 7.949978947 2017 0NWARDS Stable Growth 0.03 2.136501449 Price earnings ratio is useful in indicating the amount of money that investors are willing to spend for each dollar earned in the Goodman Fielder company. Dividing the formulae above by EPS (Earnings per share): Price earning ratio/EPS= Share market Price/EPS/ Earnings pet share According to the DDM: P = A (1+g)/(k-g). Dividing the formulae above by EPS: P/EPS = Payout Ratio (1+g)/(k-g). Thus, price earnings ratio is dependant on the following: the rate of growth, the required rate of return, and payout ratio. However, since the performance of Goodman Fielder has been very unstable, we will use the ratio multiplier to estimate the EPS of Goodman Fielder as shown below. Table 6: Approximated EPS Year 2011 2012 Market Price 0.639 Growth Rate 0.02 EPS 0.128 0.13056 Approx P/E Ratio 4.894301471 It is important to note that with the presence of many dynamics at Goodman fielder, the earning ratio has been changing constantly (Bowen et al. 1986). Price Book Ratio Likewise, Price book ratio = Equity market value/ Equity book value Price book ratio has been computed in the table below. Table 7: Price Book Ratio YEAR 2012-2014 2014-2012 2017 ONWARDS EBV 1754.4 1857.6 1771.6 EBVPS 0.8772 0.9288 0.8858 P/B 1.372253465 0.339369231 1.204338916 Discussion As we had seen, one of the main challenges that one is likely to face while evaluating a company like Goodman Fielder is the presence of many dynamics at play here (Head 2008). For example, data on stock returns for the past six years indicates a gradual dip in stock prices, which change on a continuous basis (Bowen et al. 1986). During our earlier analysis, we were able to observe a pattern of struggle and poor performance at Goodman Fielder (Chitou Ketz 1991). Generally, the overall trend of stock returns has been on a downward trend (Peasnell 1981). Although a number of catalytic activities have once in a while helpe d to stimulate the share prices to rise slightly, the general direction of the stock prices has been a dip (Head 2008). For example, on 6th January 2012, the stock prices for Goodman fielder rose by a third following a 10 percent acquisition of the company’s stake by Wilmer international limited (Ohlsen 1995). However, this particular rise of stocks was short-lived as share prices fell down again after some time (Bowen et al. 1986). Below is a graph showing an analysis of Goodman Fielder stocks in the past 18 months. As it can be seen, the performance has generally been poor. With such a trend, the Goodman Fielder shares have decreased their competitiveness in the stock market: hence, the observed dipping prices (Head 2008). The root mean square that was calculated by Excel’s regression was 0.19. As a result, about 19% of the risks that can be associated with Goodman Fielder are systematic (Peasnell 1981). Such Risks are related to trading activities at the stock mark et (Hitchner 2006). On the other hand, 81 percent of the risks that can be associated with Goodman Fielder are non systematic (Rappaport 1981). Such risks can be associated with the management of Goodman Fielder. From an analysis of the DDM model, we were able to obtain a stock price of 63.28 Cents (Chitou Ketz 1991). Such a value is comparable with the present value of the company’s stock at the share market (Hitchner 2006). However, it is still difficult to determine the accuracy of such a calculated value due to the volatile prices of the company’s share prices (leading to great variations in dividend payouts), which change constantly at the share market (Rappaport 1981). Still, the calculated value can hold for the period under which we evaluated the company (January 2006 to March 2012). On the other hand, our calculated value from cash flows was quite higher than the average share prices of Goodman Fielder (Chitou Ketz 1991). A possible explanation for such an a rrangement is the usual handling of large cash flows in companies that deal with perishables such as Goodman Fielder (Hitchner 2006). There is also a possibility of having taken wrong assumptions in our calculations, and, or errors in our computation (Jorgenson 1968). Due to a continual decrease in its share prices, the shares of Goodman Fielder could also be undervalued at the moment (Chitou Ketz 1991). In the last six years, the share prices of the (Goodman Fielder) company have decreased by over 50%. The management of Goodman fielder needs to develop innovative solutions that would steer their company back to the years of high profitability and high share capitalization (Rayburn 1986). Again, it is important to note that our understanding of the company from the models that have been evaluated above is limited (Scott 1992). Since such an evaluation is dependant on the usually speculative share market, we cannot depend on the company’s volatile share prices to arrive at ou r conclusions (Sainsbury 2010). Although many investors will use some of the methodologies that we have employed above to evaluate the potential of companies, their overall investments are usually based on speculation (Scott 1992). Still, since the performance of a company’s share price is proxy to the financial performance of a company, it can give us important information in evaluating a company (Sharpe 1964). The problem with shares like those of Goodman is that since they have been changing very gradually, it is difficult to associate specific share prices with the company’s performance (Sharpe 1964). The observed overall trend however has been a general decline in the price of the shares (Siegel 1985). Although the Dividends model approach has been useful in helping us to approximate a seemingly accurate value of Goodman fielder’s share price (based on comparison with other share prices), the cash flow system is a more accurate method of determining a compa ny’s share value (Sainsbury 2010). With a poor performance record that has recently streamed from the company (Goodman Fielder), the seemingly high price of shares that was approximated by the cash flow model indicates that the company is currently undervalued at the stock Market (Stewart 1991). In the direction of increasing its market share value, Goodman Fielder company needs to convince investors of its worth (Stiglz Weiss 1981). A robust and creative management will especially help in achieving such a goal (Stiglz Weiss 1981). Comment on Models We have used four different models to evaluate the financial performance of Goodman Fielder Company. These four models include the dividend valuation model, the cash flow model, the price earnings model and the price book value model. The value of Goodman Fielder share price that was approximated by the dividends ratio model is close to the stock performance of the company at the moment (Jorgenson 1968). t. Although the above mo del could have provided a useful approach in evaluating the share value of Goodman Fielder, a number of factors can compromise the accuracy of the DDM. As we have seen, the general performance of Goodman Fielder has been volatile, poor, and a bit unpredictable. It therefore means that the financial state of Goodman Fielder has been on a constant change (mostly in a negative direction). Dividend payouts from Goodman Fielder have reflected the unstable state of Goodman Fielder by changing constantly. Since we used the last dividend payouts to calculate the share price of Goodman Fielder (through the use of the DDM model), the price value that was calculated may not reflect the current state of Goodman Fielder. As it can be reflected in the 2011 half year a financial result, a lot has changed in Goodman Fielder since the last dividend payout. Moreover, with the current state of dismal performance, Goodman Fielder will likely avoid paying dividends payouts in the near future (as it has been doing lately); thus, presenting a difficulty in obtaining dividend values for feeding the DDM. Still, the main advantage that arises in the use of the DDM to calculate share values is the strong relationship that usually exists between share values and dividend payouts. However, for a company that has been moving in a difficult labyrinth like Goodman Fielder, it is not wise to use the DDM to calculate its share value (Collins Kothari 1989). For a company that is undergoing a crisis like Goodman fielder, the cash flow system is a more accurate method for determining the company’s share value (Sainsbury 2010). With a poor performance record that has recently streamed from the company (Goodman Fielder), it is wiser to rely on cash flows (rather than dividends) to calculate the share price of the company. Such a direction eliminates two major problems that were presented by the DDM; unsteady dividend payouts and lack of dividend payouts. As it is often the case, companies t hat are undergoing a crisis will prefer to reinvest resources than pay dividends (Stewart 1991). The cash flow model is therefore the best tool that can yield a more accurate and reliable value of a company’s share price than all the other approaches that we used. The share price of Goodman Fielder as per the cash flow model was much higher than the current share price of Goodman Fielder at the stock market (Ohlsen 1995). It is worth mentioning here that although the cash flow value was marginally higher than the stock value of Goodman fielder at the share market, the stock prices of Goodman Fielder have in recent years been performing better than the cash flow value. Here, the pointer of the cash flow value could be that the current share price of Goodman Fielder is undervalued. The calculated value of the earning ratio for Goodman Fielder is 9.2. This particular value is slightly different, but comparable with the 11 points value that has been approximated at the Bloomberg site. Our calculated price book value for Goodman Fielder Company is 1.33. Again, this particular value is different, but comparable to the 0.98 points value at the Bloomberg site. Although the price earnings ratio and the price book value are great in providing us with values that we can use to calculate share values for Goodman and fielder, they lack one important component in estimating share values-the future performance of Goodman and Fielder. Through the use of a growth rate, the DDM and cash flow models estimate the future performance of a company while estimating the current share value of a company. Conclusion During the past six years, the financial performance of Goodman Fielder has declined steadily. Such a direction has seen the company’s share value drop over the same period. While we obtained a yield from the dividends model that approximated the current value of shares at the stock market, the more accurate cash flows model yielded a value that was at least th rice the current share price. Since most stock investors like earning dividends, the stock market can thus value shares on the basis of dividend payouts (Strong Walker 1993). 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Outsourcing Information Technology Department Term Paper

Outsourcing Information Technology Department - Term Paper Example One concern that companies face today when deciding to outsource their entire IT departments is the amount of security needed to protect their product, their financial records, and their customers. Ken Wheatley, vice president of corporate security, Sony Electronics states, â€Å"People are so focused on saving money and shifting operations that they don't think about the safeguards that need to be put in place† (May 2005). Not all companies’ need the same type of security levels, which is a decision made based on the nature of the business. Wheatley also goes on to say, â€Å"U.S. based companies routinely underestimate the extra elements of risk introduced into the offshoring equation by issues such as poor infrastructure, political instability and legal systems that don't line up with Western practices.† Wheatley continues to say that American companies are so set on saving money that they do not realize other countries do not have the same mindset and safegua rds as we do†. While reviewing the aspects of outsourcing portions of the information technology (IT) department, task force managers measured the cost risk benefits of keeping its better run IT operations in-house. The IT department was divided into five sections, application development and maintenance, operations, database and systems administration, voice and data networking infrastructure, and technical training. A study was performed against each of these organizations regarding how they measured against industry leading outsource consulting companies. A baseline of criteria was established for measurement purposes that included the number of full-time salaried employees and annual salaries, number of years experience, employee educational achievements and certifications, and efficiency of the departmental workflow process. In addition, the business management teams consulted with several IT consulting companies to gather as much information as possible for the considere d outsource IT organizations.